The International Money Fun or Illuminati; "a pig sty by any other name would smell as sour."
In the beginning God created the earth and heavens and then the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury created funny money.  With this funny money (a fiat currency) they created infinite power.
Article 1, section 10 says; no state shall enter into any treaty, alliance, or confederation; grant letters of marque and reprisal; coin money; emit bills of credit; make anything but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts; pass any bill of attainder, ex post facto law, or law impairing the obligation of contracts, or grant any title of nobility.  Without going laborious details about the creation of the Federal Reserve System, let us just say they bastardized the entire U.S. monetary system.  The Federal Reserve was the dream child of six major banking powers.  They realized as long as the currency was backed by some tangible asset the could not unleash their power to control the world monetary system.  So with the creation of the central bank (which had failed six congressional votes) or Federal Reserve Act with one fell sweep of the pen upon it's final passage in part created the financial crisis we are suffering today.  No fiat currency has ever existed without it's complete destruction.

No state shall, without the consent of the Congress, lay any imposts or duties on imports or exports, except what may be absolutely necessary for executing it's inspection laws: and the net produce of all duties and imposts, laid by any state on imports or exports, shall be for the use of the treasury of the United States; and all such laws shall be subject to the revision and control of the Congress.

No state shall, without the consent of Congress, lay any duty of tonnage, keep troops, or ships of war in time of peace, enter into any agreement or compact with another state, or with a foreign power, or engage in war, unless actually invaded, or in such imminent danger as will not admit of delay.

11.09.08
I can't tell you how worried I am about stocks.  Seriously, many of the stocks are trading at lower than depression levels.  If the US survives and our capitalist economy continues then some of these pieces of paper have to be bought.  To tell you the truth they're trading at levels that predict the collapse of America as we know it.  I have been hesitant to even write one of my rants because I really can't be optimistic about anything other than gold and silver.

11.02.08

The election is already over and the winner is the Illuminati Ben Bernake and Henry Paulson ticket.  
Some people think the election is between McCain and Obama.  My question is what will change with either of them.  Honestly, what difference does it make.  The Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury are the winners.  People just think there's a election for leadership of America. Ok, just to satisfy your curiosity about the vote coming Tuesday, we'll make some sort of insincere comment.  With Obama you get change, yeah you might have a little change in your pocket.  With McCain you get a maverick that is part of the heard.  Obama offers larger government with more regulation.  McCain offers larger government with more accountability.  So either way you get more government with a difference in symantics.  So the vote comes down to regulation vs. accountability.  Sounds like sweeping change to me.  Sure.  With the government's (I'm not sure who's) fallout shelter plan funneling trillions into the socialist economy there is no money left for either candidate to abscond with. So their battle for the budget, well it's already been won by Bernake andePaulson without a vote being cast..  When either wakes up as the victor, they'll find that the piggy bank has already been broken. They'll find themselves as a lame duck President to The Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasure or Illuminati.   How could the most powerful nation in the world come up with two candidates so bad.  I really don't think we could do worse.  We've got one candidate that has the experience of a community organizer and another that has years of bad experience.  Both want to get the fat cats, but if they do who'll fund their campaigns.  Who am I for?  Joe Six-pack or Joe the Plumber, either would be better than the choice we have.   The only thing I'm hoping for is a government that is not totally ruled by one party.  Oh, I forgot it already is.  The Federal Reserve and Treasury. 

10.28.08
Elegant words or political persuasion cannot describe the relevance of the election.  I fear that either party has lost the intent of the framer's of our constitution.  Their lack of understanding and their undying commitment to re-election of themselves has taken our government to the brink.  From Al Gore's global environmental mechanism for control, to the government's rationale for more regulation is creating a populist viewpoint for reform.  It is not needed.   Neither party offers anything other than the same old "we'll do this for you".  Can the parties not understand that government is the last thing we need in a time of peril.  Let freedom ring not government rule.  The founder's of our great nation foresaw the ruin of their brilliant, revolutionary, decree for individual rights in the time of crisis.  Man was given the right to excel without their interference.  Doom is in fact the scenario when we give politicians the right to determine who should succeed and  who should not.  Let not the whims of political correctness be our destiny.  We are without leadership in that both parties propound the status quo.  How can we rule ourselves unless the parties be damned.  Give us you tired, your poor, your huddled masses has been replaced by give us your money.  Who do you vote for?  How can you win?  Maybe we need a "none of the above" and when it wins, just start the process over.  How could we do any worse if we didn't have a short term president.
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10.26.08
FLASH!  Our head is on the line.!
The markets should zoom over the next couple of weeks.
Here's our logic.  
The only way for McCain to move up in the polls is for the stock market to calm down or even rally.  As long as the stock market is crashing or just going down, McCain can not get his message out.  If this theory is correct then the rich Wall Street republicans should pull out all the stops to get this market to calm down.  I just wanted to get this posted prior to the open on Monday.  So if you find yourself wondering why the market is suddenly rallying or at least stabilizing, this is our reason.  May sound far fetched but I've seen stranger things.
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10.24.08
Don't shoot the messenger. 
To our comments from 10.22.08 one readers responded:
Pretty scary stuff, worse than the depression?……………are we headed to the horse and buggy days?  Does the election even matter?  Do I need to stock up on ammo and start growing a garden.  Not preaching, but the work of Daniel in the Old Test, and the book of the Revelation in the new testament speaks of these types of perils.  Maybe the end is near and Armageddon is just around the corner.
Well you may be closer than you think.  
While still looking for some sort of over sold rally (I hope), it could be the last for years.  
The bankruptcy of Iceland may just be the tip of the iceberg.  Get it,  Iceberg, Iceland.  Just to good to pass up.  
Anyway this is just the start of the domino theory.  Looking globally there are a lot of countries to follow.  
Iceland is seeking help from the IMF (International Monetary Fund) or as many call it the Illuminati. 
If this doesn't get the conspiracy theory juices going nothing will.  
Yes, it could be the long anticipated take over by the "beast".  As more countries seek financial aid the IMF will gladly oblige for a piece of the country.  This is what many have been preaching about for years.  Is this the beginning of "The New World Order"?  Being a little bit of a conspiracy buff, this latest scenario just seems to be more than coincidental. Books and websites have been written about the Illuminati (World Bank) for years.  I don't need to go into all the eerily similar aspects of it, but you can't argue against the fact that the central banks are taking control.   I, actually, can't believe we're not hearing more about it.  If I'm thinking it, you knows others will be bringing it up soon.  More to come on this subject.
This also parallels with one of my previous rants about Bear Stearns creating the fix we're in.  Well Bear and Stearns were both original members of the group that created the federal reserve in 1907.   So Bear Stearns starts the central bank, then years latter they created the mortgage mess, and now the federal reserve and the Illuminati  in cahoots to not only nationalize America's bank but now the takeover of failing countries.  Coincidence, maybe.
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10.22.08
Stocks look like the government is going to nationalize the world.
As I look at stock prices I'm overwhelmed.  From the industrials to the financials to the drugs to the tech's, I'm seeing prices that are truly Armageddon levels.  There is something out there that is bigger and scarier than what we've seen so far.  I'm seeing stock prices that are truly signaling more than a depression.  They look like capitalism as we know it is coming to an end.  When I've had this feeling in the past it's usually a bottom, but it may be a top.  Is the global economy going to stop?  I am looking at stock charts that have been shattered with know visible level of support.  This bottom is going to take longer than I ever expected.  I look at stocks that I traded back in 1980 and they are below those levels.  The volume in them is still high and stocks don't bottom with that much interest.  I hate to say it but I'm scared.  Everyone in America is saying it's too late to sell now, but is it?  It feels to me like everyone is thinking we are close to a bottom.  Is that just my thinking?  All the soothsayer's are optimistic about stocks long term.  They all, with a few exceptions, seem to be saying, buy stocks and you'll be rewarded in 3 to 5 years.   I sure don't like the way everyone is so cock sure about the long term stock market.  It doesn't look like it's a matter of stocks but a matter of money.  Will the fiat currency finally destroy all our wealth?  Hate to even mention it but it sure looks like stocks are not trading because of their business but are trading like the dollars they are purchased in are the real risk.  
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The dumbest thing I've ever seen.
The short sell rule ends today.  In case you weren't paying attention this was the brilliant idea of our head of the SEC (Chris Cox) that stopped people from selling stocks short.  This came into being about 3 weeks ago and of course it created illiquid markets and caused the stocks to basically crash.  Unintended consequences rears it's ugly head.  This rule was of course to keep financial stocks from crashing but obviously it had the opposite effect.  One, if I'm short a stock prior to this rule there's no way I'll cover my short because I can't short it again.  This rule takes stocks lower because the shorts won't buy to cover their shorts which would have created a rally.  Second, without being able to short stocks we create a totally illiquid market because there's no one to take the other side of the trade.  So if I want to buy BAC and then short WAC to hedge my position, well I can't, so I end up doing nothing because I can't hedge my position.  This was by far the dumbest rule I've ever seen.  It compares with doing away with the up-tick rule.  Don't get me started on that.  Chris Cox has to go.   
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What is today?  It seems like yesterday or tommorrow.
We are reminded of some Pink Floyd and Leonard Cohen

First Pink Floyd

The lunatic is on the grass
Remembering games and daisy chains and laughs
Got to keep the loonies on the path

The lunatic is in the hall
The lunatics are in my hall
The paper holds their folded faces to the floor
And every day the paper boy brings more

And if the dam breaks open many years too soon
And if there is no room upon the hill
And if your head explodes with dark forbodings too
Ill see you on the dark side of the moon

I think they said it pretty well.  The lunatic's are on capitol hill.
Everyday there's a big story and everyday the paper brings another.  Jeez, today was historical but so was yesterday and the day before, etc., etc.  Today we had a coordinated global rate cut.  The last time even anything close was in 1986, when 3 countries unified to cut rates.  Remember this day because today all the major governments turned on the printing press.  Governments are truly throwing the kitchen sink at this economy.  Now their talking uniformly resetting mortgage rates on homes based on their current price.  If that isn't socialism I don't no what is.  
This is like the old strategy of canceling everybody's debt every 50 years, (they actually use to do this in many Indian cultures)  but what if you don't have any debt?  Do we loose?  This leads into Leonard, he's dark but very inciteful.

Leonard Cohen
Everybody knows that the dice are loaded
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed
Everybody knows that the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich
That's how it goes
Everybody knows

Well that says it also.  Investing is becoming a rigged game.  The government bails out the companies or people they choose.  It's the same old story the rich get rich and the poor stay poor.  

Oh, and how could I forget?  Bob Dylan
They say that patriotism is the last refuge/
to which a scoundrel clings/
Steal a little and they throw you in jail/
Steal a lot and they make you king

I still think this looks like 1979/1982 market.  We are setting up for a great bull market, but is it in the US.  I still think the Brazil story makes sense.  I re-bought GGB (Gerdau, the largest steel maker in the world) at $6.  I sold it to early last year at $24 it went on up to $36.  Now at 6 that seems like panic.  Re-bought Rio (the largest copper producer in the world) at $12.  I sold it early at $32 it went on to almost $40.  At 12, that seems like panic.  These are risky and volatile, not for the faint of heart.  I'm not recommending them I just pointing out the carnage and what seems to be a long term opportunity. 
We are definitely facing deflation but will the government printing press over do the natural deflation occurring and create hyper-inflation.  I don't know but I still tell you to own some hard currency in either scenario.
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10.06.08
Reno?  No Rio. Rio de general.
First this reminds me so much of 1981.  Remember it's the bizzaro 1979-1982 market.  I think some of the markets are good and I think we're about to get a huge rally, but don't look for too much too quick.  We've got to go through a low volume apathetic period.  Then we can say never sell a dull market short.  Apathy is what we need for a significant market rally.  Should be so lucky as to catch a piece of the coming market rally I think I'm really going to be putting some money in Brazil.  I've got so much to rant on, I can't focus on any one thing to write on.  I'll try and piece meal this update and don't get me started on our government.  I'll get there quick enough.
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10.03.08
To paraphrase Michael Nesmith
I think I might travel to Rio leaving the money behind, there's something I know about Rio and that's something to do with the mine,  I really won't invest down in Rio but then again I just might. You think I jest.  Not.  Looking at stable markets Brazil may be one of the only safe havens.  After the crash of course.  They have created such a robust economy the don't need our money or products.  They are running a government surplus, huge natural resources, and a rapidly growing economy.  They have world's largest steel company.  The world's largest copper reserve.  Cars that run on ethanol not made from corn.  One of the largest undeveloped oil reserves.  Great beaches.  The Amazon.  The rain forest.  Low unemployment.  A stable currency.  Beautiful women that go topless and wear thong's.  Carnival.  What am I doing in Oklahoma?  Seriously, I follow several Brazilian companies.Afteries that have been taken out and shot.  Long term their whole market may be one of the great buys.  If you wonder how to invest there shoot me an email and I'll elaborate.  This is where you need the gold or silver to bribe their border guards in case they ban American's.
Well the market broke all support that I can see and with the whole world focused on our legislature, well that can't be good.  Most market guru's related this market to the 1987 crash.  I see it different.  It so reminds me of the market from 1979 to 1982.  This was when Paul Volcher raised interest rate's to over 20% on money markets and 30 years treasuries yielded 14%.  Gold was at a record price.  There was an oil crisis and gas line's.  Housing prices were through the roof.  Unemployment was high.  Inflation was skyrocketing.  Fear of the market was rampant.  From this followed one of the greatest bull markets in history.  Well this is sort of the bizarro market.  We have interest rate below 2%, 30 year treasuries below 4%,  home prices plummeting, gold soaring (was), oil crisis,  basically we have opposite extremes but the psychology is same.  One thing I know is that extreme volatility occurs at market bottoms or market tops.  We certainly have the volatility.  The question is are we at the bottom or the top.  You tell me because I don't know.   
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So many words, so little mind.
The fallout plan.  I'm vacillating on it.  
At first I was for it now I'm not sure.  It will free up the credit markets.  It will do many things short term.  Long term I think it stinks.  Real Estate will still continue to fall and we'll probably need another fallout plan in about six months.  We can throw the kitchen sink at this problem and I still think the problem remains.  There are simply to many headwinds to have any long term effect.  All this negativity, however, has nothing to do with stocks.  If I listed the problems facing America this rant would be like the fallout plan.  It would start with a couple pages but end up with hundreds.
I'll point out a couple of problems that I think are being overlooked.  First, as I've told my son for years, capital goes were it is treated best.  With the enormous move up in the dollar, multi-year low in interest rates, high corporate taxes, potential for a credit meltdown, high unemployment,  a massive fallout plan that could be very inflationary (even though I think we're in major deflation). America on the brink of recession or depression, and the usual suspects (major governments) needing their own capital to support their economic downturn, why would they buy our currency?  The dollar has moved up so dramatically that other countries are having to use more of their fund to park in what use to be, the safe have, US dollar.  This being said, who is going to buy our treasuries or fund our massive debt?  If you're China do you want to park you Juan's in US dollars?  I don't think so.  There has been a massive dislocation of currency on a global basis.  When such dramatic moves occur in the US dollar stability, which is what foreign investors want, is anything but present.  These foreign entities are not interested in return but are interested in getting their money back.  With this scenario parking of funds becomes a major global issue.  The ramifications of this are tenuous if not catastrophic.  We will have to see how this plays out but the flow of currency is much more important than any stock market.  Just pointing out that the underlying problem is not housing but lack of liquidity for currency placement.  Enough said, let's move on.
The second issue I point out is that perhaps the markets are moving down because of the potential passage of the fallout plan for in fact it is taking the focus from actual economic fundamentals and once the debate is over and the bill passed, there will be no distraction from the real economic distress.  Just another side.
The third thing I point out is more relevant to the individual.  Gasoline supplies could be reduced drastically.  With oil prices declining one would think that gasoline and other refined products would follow.  Not necessarily.  The crack spread (the difference between the cost of making a gallon of gas and the cost of oil) is non-existent.   So with refineries losing money on each gallon of gasoline, why would they keep making a product they are losing their shirts on.  I think there's a real probability that the refiner's significantly cut, if not just shut down.  This could result in higher gasoline prices, product shortages, and even gas line ala the early 80's.  Just another happy thought.  I still think one needs to own a small amount of silver coins, just in case we need to bribe the border guards.  More later.
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09.25.08
Is WaMu the bell?
Jeez what a couple of weeks.  With all the nuances from oil prices, no shorting of financial stocks, mortgage crisis, recession looming, banks going bankrupt, investment banks bankrupt, and, oh yeah, the fallout plan, I'm just about speechless.  The cloud on the horizon has been revealed.  The big one finally bit the dust.  WaMu bankruptcy and a fallout plan should wash this thing out.  I hope.  This should put the pressure on Congress to make a deal.  Looking for a crash down but a reversal up.  I can't see how things could get any worse.  This will probably cause a little run on the banks.  I told my son to get a few hundred dollars cash just in case the ATM's shut down.  The only problem is tomorrow is Friday and a crash tomorrow could lead to another crash Monday.  
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09.25.08

09.25.08
Y.A.G.O.may stand for Your America Goes Ouch!
These guys are scaring me.  
The market sold off in the last few minutes supposedly because Congress hadn't reach an agreement on the fallout package.  My only solace in all this is I've seen this movie before but before I go into my long winded diatribe about the functionality of a fiat currency, let me tell you from experience that it never pays to bee too negative or positive about anything.  That said, I'll holler Uncle and you should to if the S&P closes below 1142.  Close only.  If this happens lighten up your U.S. stock exposure significantly on any rally if we get one.  
I remember 1981 and1982.  These years are the only thing I have as a comparative.  All though things were opposite in we were facing hyper-inflation as opposed to major deflation (depression), the underlying culprit was the same.  The U.S. dollar.  It's like deja vue all over again (I hate to keep using that Yogi Berra saying but I just love it).  Standing at the cliff of financial Armageddon is a defining moment in one's belief in a fiat currency.  The good news about owning stocks is they can crash but your cash is trash (just made that up, not bad though).   I have almost a peaceful recognition owning stocks in the face of socialism but stocks or dollars in the mattress it won't matter if they don't turn this thing around.  Financial guru's pontificate that in times of crisis one should be more invested in cash but in a our current debacle this is foly.  If we don't pull this off your dollars will be great for starting a fire.  Fiat currencies always end up the same basically worthless.  There's is truly no safe haven in these times other than gold or silver.  I don't mean buying GLD or SLV the ETF's.  I mean the real thing.  Yes physical gold or silver.  If you don't have 5 percent of your saving's in raw gold or silver I suggest you go to the local pawnshop buy some silver coins and put them in a safety deposit box or safe.  I know this sounds barbaric but believe me when the currency goes up in smoke you'll be happy you have two silver dimes to rub together.  If you've got that covered then go ahead and buy stocks.  The U.S. dollar is no longer king.  Just my opinion. 
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09.25.08
Can you buy a market up 500?
Mid-day update.
The market mid-day is up around 250.  Looking for a little sell-off and then a melt up.  Can you buy a market up 5%?  Most people will not touch the market up this much.  It's the hard trade to buy a market up this much.  Hard trades are usually the best.  If you have iron testicles add to your position if the market is up strong.  Most people are thinking the old game plan of selling into strength.  Not this time.  Buy into strength.  I know it's hard to do.   Most investors are still paralyzed.  Trader's are looking for a pullback to buy.  It won't happen.   This market will not give you a chance to buy a dip.  You have to do what seems irrational.  Fundamentals have not changed.  They are still awful but by the time they improve we'll be approaching a top.  Once again buy as we are falling off the cliff.  We'll get a branch to hang on to and pull ourselves back up.  Just my opinion.  My neck is on the line.  Is yours? 
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09.24.08
What's under the hood.
Didn't watch the market today.  Looks like I didn't miss anything.  Got back to the office in time to hear our brilliant congress interrogate Paulson and Berneke.  It's like Forest Gump questioning Einstein about the theory of relativity.  They don't have a clue.  Doesn't it make you feel warm and fuzzy knowing they've got your back.  Jeez, how do these guys get elected.  Oh yeah, we're a democracy.  Not!  Democracy is mob rule.  The worst form of government.  Never forget we are a democratic republic.  Hearing people say our government is a democracy is one of my biggest pet peeves.  The beauty and success of America is based on the brilliance of the framer's of the constitution.  Their experiment was based on freedom from government intervention in our lives.  They created a system based on the electoral process where our elected officials were given their powers based on small local government representation.  We gave these officials the right to vote on our rights based on a thorough understanding of the problems that faced their constituency.  We elected someone with more knowledge and understanding of current affairs than John Q.  John Q. had to put food on the table and could not dedicate his time to all the nuances of a complicated economy.  This system is being bastardized in the name of democracy.  To hear the press represent our system of government as majority rule is simply untrue.   Now we are faced with the Bozo system.  The inmates are running the asylum.  How can they know anything when every waking moment is spent getting re-elected.  It's like they're all in a beauty contest for popularism.  No substance in most of them.  Their intelligence is based on smoke and mirrors.  I could rant on for hours about our inept government an"d press but then I would stick my head in the sand and miss this great buying opportunity.  Can I be wrong?  You betcha.  But at least I'll be wrong with a basic understanding of  economic conditions as opposed to the Johnny come lately legislature.  They are pure and simple reactionaries. They want to close the barn door after the cows have already left.  They are all revved up with out a clue how we got here.  Where were they when the mess started?  Campaigning.  

In my humble opinion this all started in 1977.  
The now defunct Bear Stearns came up with a formula for packaging and pricing home mortgages.  The Ginnie Mae.  As a pup broker for Paine Webber I remember the day I could start selling John Q. government backed paper at a higher yield than their CD's.  Oh yeah, I forgot to mention I got paid a lot more for selling them.  How much?  If I sold you a $100,000 thousand in treasury bonds or CD's I'd make around $500.  If I sold you a ginnie mae I'd make around $4500.  Well for brokers whose income is based on commission what do you think they sold?  The ginnie mae prior to Bear Stearn's was a totally institutional product, held by banks and govenrments.   Bear came up with the formula to package these mortgages in much smaller increments.  They took the entire mortgage industry and put it in what's are called traunches.  Their was now no research needed to calculate the price of the mortgage since all the mortgages were government backed.  This meant that the security of the mortgage was not based on the fundamentals.  A mortgage in Harlem had the same quasi value as a mortgage in Beverley Hills.  All mortgages had the same value without consideration of the local.  This was the first leverage of the mortgage market.  Think about it.  Mortgages are 30 years in duration.  I find it ironic that the economic debacle came to a head in 2006.  29 years after their creation.  As these mortgages came due the institutions had to price them based on their value.  Well over thirty years you can bet the brokers had levered these things up 30 or 40 times.  The chickens were coming home to roost as reality based pricing was suddenly here.  It terns out that real estate in Harlem and Beverley Hills were not the same.  My billion dollar mortgage in Harlem was not the same as it's counterpart in Beverley Hills even though through  they were both valued the same.  You can see the can of worms this opened.  This doesn't include the fact that the mortgages were levered even further in what's call the yen carry trade.  This involved taking the ginnie mae, levering it up (since it was government backed) and buying many multiples of it's value and buying the zero yielding yen.  They then levered the yen and bought high yield New Zealand or Australian bonds yielding 8 or 9 percent.  What a deal.  Lever up your money at zero percent and invest it at 8 or 9 percent.  What a great deal.  The snowball started with the dislocation of the currency.  Well the young hedge fund manager's with their computer programmed investment strategies, missed one detail.  They could be valuing the government mortgages at the wrong price.  There's a lot more to it but this is a start.  More to come.  Remind me to rant about were money seeks a home.  Also Ron Paul.  I took his newsletter in the 1980's.
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09.23.08
With John Q. basically frozen with market fear there's no way he's buying stocks.  But with the market at 15000 confidence will return and as usual John Q. will buy a major  long term top.  The top will be in place for years.  The bail out creates your last chance to buy stocks before you sell for the long term.  Just my opinion.
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09.23.08

Buffet buys the bottom.
Warren just put 5 billion into Goldman.
Whoops another buzzer at the bottom.
Congress will pass the bail out bill and the bell will ring.
Sounds crazy as I write it but it looks like Dow 15000 by April.
Don't ask any questions, just buy stocks.  I still think this is the best buying opportunity I've seen since 1981, 1987, 1990, 2002.  The mother of all buy signals.  
Also the Dem's just gave up on off shore drilling.  This should give us a top in oil.  Big tax cut for John Q.  It's a gimme to buy oil service stocks.  Oil is probably history in price but oil stocks look great.  Remember oil at 145 and oil stocks at multi year low.  What's wrong with this picture?  With oil at staggeringly high price oil companies could not invest in their own business but with oil declining to below $80 their budgets become much more stable.  Earnings will increase for them with lower oil prices.
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09.22.08
Should set up a self maintaining food and energy system at the farm.  
Water, grain fed cattle, chemical free vegetables and eventually gold and silver.  
Paper currency headed for trouble and gold and silver will once again become a medium of exchange. 
Everything is going to the rural areas.  Transportation cost could skyrocket causing less mobility.  
Need for local retailers will become more and more vital. 
Yes China can make stuff cheaper but the transport costs are going to defer sales to America.  
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09.22.08
Buy when the bombs are falling.
The only thing that scares me is the strength of my conviction.
This is a strong buy signal. 
I don't think I've ever see things so negative.  Rarely do the negatives become so overwhelming.  Either we're all going to hell in a hand basket or this is a great time to buy stocks.  Is the elevator half full or half empty?  I think main street is fleeing stocks.  To a soothsayer, they are all negative.  Find me a short term bull.  The only problem is that as a contrarion,  I think I may not be.  This does remind me of the early 80's.  I was a stockbroker with Paine Webber.  Gold was soaring, oil prices were rising, the market was tanking.  Joe Granville and Robert Prechter were calling for Armageddon.  Inflation was roaring.  Interest rates were soaring.  Japan was buying U.S. real estate.  The dollar was a disaster.  The Dow had fallen from a record 1100 to below 800.  Nothing could be more wrong.  This was the start of the most powerful bull market in history.  To quote Yogi Berra, it's deja vue all over again?  
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09.19.08
So we are getting a bail out.  
Short term good.
Long term watch for your money.
This package will be sold as a bail out for main street but it's really a bailout for government.  The unintended consequences syndrome is coming into play. 
First this package is to be formulated to create liquidity for the frozen debt markets and short term this will probably work.  So as said yesterday get long.  Longer term however you can see that the government was panicking because they saw tax receipts completely drying up.  So despite the way this will be sold it's basically to finance the continued growth of government.  The SEC is now going to put a federal guarantee on money market funds.  So the tax payer just took on a 3 trillion dollar risk.  Couple this with 50 billion with Bear Stearns, 280 billion for fannie and freddie.  Then there's the 95 billion for AIG.  Then there's the additional 200 billion the fed injected overnight to try and free up liquidity between banks.  Basically that's approaching 8 trillion dollars put on the back of John Q.  Oh yeah and to curve the downward pressure on stocks they are stopping all short selling.  This is quite a lot to fathom in that most of it has happened over the last two weeks.  The flee to hard assets (gold, silver, oil, food) that has occurred in the last few days will be temporarily stopped and we'll probably see a sell off in the hard and soft commodities and a market rally.  The government will declare victory.  
Here's the rub.  With the housing market in depression, tax revenues drying up for states and municipalities, unemployment rising, the economy slowing, the consumer strapped, oil still at close to $100 per barrel, spiraling health care costs and the mainly the government debt basically doubling in a few weeks, we are basically postponing the inevitable.  With all this we say buy stocks.  Sound crazy but were else can you put your money.  Stocks up for the next few months.  But the inevitable compounding of debt and a world of fiat currencies this approach is doomed for calamity.  Not now but wait till next year.  The real thorn in the side is the rating of the US dollar.  With the printing presses working over time for this short term fix the solvency for US debt is in jeopardy.  With no limitation on the expansion of  paper assets we face a real calamity.  So short term buy stocks but long term you better own some gold and silver.  The purchasing power of a fiat currency has always ended in disaster.  But the government will do anything it can to extend it's own existence.  This means socialism will be the new order.  But in the long run we're all dead anyway.
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9.18.08
Stock Market Comment
Buy em tomorrow.  They don't ring a bell at the bottom but the Fed did push a buzzer.
This reminds me of 1981 when I was short the market and had never made so much money but alas I stayed too long and gave back everything and more.  With the hedge funds all short the rules have been changed.  Tomorrow the naked short sale rule ban goes into effect.  This means that after what should be a panic sell down on the market tomorrow the short's will need to scramble to take their profits.  This maybe harder than you think.  With the market very oversold and due for some sort of bounce, after an initial last person panic out of the market it should began to levitate.  As this happens the shorts will start to cover.  Buy back their short positions.  They will do this because they can no longer short into strength because of the new rule.  The gradual natural bounce due the market will start to pick up steam.  Short covering will cause acceleration of the move up but because all the selling has been done the short will be forced to pay more and more to buy back their short position.  This could cause a market melt up as opposed to down.  The major risk for investor's is being out of the market.  I think we could we could trade up 20% in the next couple of weeks.  This makes perfect sense because all the alleged long term investor's have liquidated, the shorts can't short any more, and they have to buy to try and take profits on their short position.  This will distort the up move coming for the market.  With money markets crumbling the 3.1 trillion in money markets will decide that they might as well risk their money in stocks since the money markets have became as treacherous as the stock market.  Don't get us wrong we're not calling for a better economy or a long term buy and hold but a 6 month trade. 
The bell is ringing.  Get long.
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